2017 Seasonal Hurricane Predictions and Names

 When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

The official dates of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season are June 1   through November 30. 

The peak, or most busiest, part of the season is usually from about the second week of August through late October.

 North Atlantic Hurricane Basin Map

The Atlantic Hurricane Basin includes the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Wondering if the tropics will be in the news a lot this year?   The experts have read their crystal balls, and some of them  seem to think so!  OK - maybe they don't really read a crystal ball.  A whole lot actually goes into these hurricane season forecasts.

As a group, most of the forecasters are saying this year will be right around average.   An average season, over the last 30 years, we have seen 12 named storms, with 6 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2 -  3 making it to Major Hurricane strength. 

Only one of the forecast organizations that I follow  - GWO - is forecasting an above average season, and they are predicting a real doosie! 

Image Source

*A tropical cyclone is any system that is borne over tropical waters (or even sub tropical ones), and exhibits a closed low level circulation.  Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all tropical cyclones.

The long range forecasts for this year have been made by Tropical Storm Risk, Global Weather Oscillations, WSI (a division of The Weather Company, and affiliate of the Weather Channel on TV),   Colorado State University, and or course, NOAA / NHC (National Hurricane Center).   

 Here’s a handy chart showing what each of those organizations has predicted.  The three columns show forecasts for total number of Named Storms, how many of those will become Hurricanes and which hurricanes will intensify into Major Hurricanes.

For comparison, the first line shows an average over the last 30 years in each of those categories.

 2016 PRESEASON PREDICTIONS

NS= Named Storms; H=Hurricanes; MH= Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)

AUGUST UPDATES

Hurricane Arthur makes landfall, July 3, 2014

We already know that some forecasters are predicting a season that is more active that average.  Maybe it will be, and maybe not, but WHERE might this year’s storms make landfall?

Really, no one knows for sure.  But, the good Dr. Philip Klotzbach, at CSU's Tropical Meteorological Project, is bold enough to assign some numerical probabilities to certain broad regions. So is David Dilley, of Global Weather Oscillations. Here's what the two of them have to say about 2017.

GWO Landfall Predictions: 

6 Landfalling named storms for the United States, 3 of which will be Hurricanes.  He further says that 1 or 2 of the hurricanes to make landfall could be strong, or major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

CSU Landfall Predictions: 

For the United States overall:  

TS - 69% chance of one or more Tropical Storm landfalls

H - 75% chance of a Hurricane strike (Hurricanes of any strength)

MH - 42% chance for a hit from a Major Hurricane  

For the Gulf Coast (the area from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas / Mexico border):

TS -48%; H - 49%; MH -24%

Peninsula Florida and the East Coast:  

TS  41%; H - 51%; MH - 24%

For the Caribbean: 

TS - 73% ; H - 65%; MH - 34%

A couple of the premier forecasting organizations increased their numbers with their August update.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll use more than we otherwise would. Maybe that will be so, and maybe not.  Yes, it's looking like we may, but still, let's hope for the NOT...

I'll update the listing as new  tropical cyclones are officially named.

Is your name on the list of Atlantic Basin Hurricane Names for 2017?

If so, you might have a tropical storm or hurricane named after you this year! 

Although most of us think of the names used to designate tropical weather systems as ‘the Hurricane Names,’ that’s inaccurate.     A storm gets named when it reaches tropical storm strength.  (Sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) Not all tropical weather systems turn into hurricanes. However, most people still refer to the names on the list as "hurricane names."

The names for this year, and even the next five years, have long since been chosen.

There are six established lists that are used in rotation year after year.  Each alphabetical list has 21 names on it, alternating between male and female.  This year’s list begins with a masculine name.  Next year, a feminine one will be up first.

Image source

Yes, the season begins on June 1st, and ends on November 30th.  But tropical weather systems can't read calendars. Sometimes there are early or late Storms

Early Storms are fairly common.  In 2012, we had not one, but two, in May

As for late storms -  2005 saw Hurricane Epsilon (Nov 29 - Dec 9), and Tropical Storm Zeta ( Dec 30 - Jan 7)

 Incredibly, Hurricane Zeta was named on December 31, 2005, and dissipated on January 7, making it only the second named system in recorded history to span two calendar years!

Image from Pixabay (P.D.)

Here are a few things you might like to know about the naming and naming conventions that are used for tropical weather systems.

• The World Meteorological Organization is in charge of the lists.
• The lists were first established in 1953, with all feminine monikers.
• Naming alternate storms after men was introduced in 1979.
• Some Names Get Retired.  If a storm is particularly devastating, the name could be taken out of service, out of respect for those affected.  For example, Katrina was retired after the 2005 season.
• The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not used at all, for obvious reasons.
• This year’s list was last used in 2009.  There were no retirements after the last use, so it stays exactly the same as it was then.
• These same names will be used again in 2021, unless there are retirements.  In that case, the replacement names will be of the same gender and begin with the same letter as those being replaced.

There are exactly 21 storm names on each of the six lists used for yearly tropical storm names.

What happens if more than 21 tropical systems get strong enough to get named?

Do they start over again withe that year's "A" name?  NO

Do they 'borrow' names from next year's list?  They won't do that, either.

Do they just let the guy on duty at the time pick name #22?  Of course not.

Above image is my own

Here's What Happens 

The 22nd named storm will be named ALPHA, the first letter of the Greek alphabet.  

Any subsequent storms that season will be named for other letters of the Greek Alphabet, in order.

Has this ever happened before?

Yes, once - just one single time -  in the last 60 years.  

The 2005 hurricane season, had a record-breaking 27 named storms!

After the last name on the list, which was Wilma, the additional storms were called:  Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta

This page is not an official weather site.  I am a long time coastal resident with a keen interest in tropical weather, not a professional meteorologist..  I have simply made it my business to learn as much as I can, season by season.

I have always been happy to share some of the things I have learned through decades of exposure to the threat of hurricane strikes.  I am still learning and still sharing. 

For authoritative information on weather - especially current severe weather events - please consult an official weather source.  Here are a couple of good ones:

National Hurricane Center

Weather Underground

If you’d like to read the very detailed annual predictions from a real expert -  Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University - you can find his report here, in PDF format:

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2017  

2016 turned out to be an above average year for tropical activity.  Some of the things that some of us will remember are:

• Hurricane Alex formed in the month of January.  The last time that happened was 1938. 
•  Hurricane Matthew was the first Cat 5 storm since Felix in 2007.  He was costly and deadly, causing over $15 Billion in damages, and killing 603 people.
• The public continued to underestimate the potential danger when it's "only a tropical storm."  Hundreds of thousands suffered through power outages during and after these storms.  In addition to the widespread damage to structures from flooding, nine people lost their lives to tropical storms in 2016.
• October saw the first time since 1964 that two hurricanes of category 2 or stronger were spinning in the Western Atlantic at the same time.  Those two were Matthew and Nicole.
• The final hurricane of the season, Otto, made a name for himself in two ways.  1) On November 23, he intensified into a hurricane in the Caribbean, the latest storm to do so there.  3)  He also became the first system on 30 years to cross over from the Atlantic Basin to the Pacific Basin while maintaining named storm status.

   Tropical Weather System Tracks during the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

How accurate were last year's hurricane season forecasts?  See for yourself! What follows is a chart showing the predictions of several of the big names in tropical meteorology, and the actual numbers for the 2015 season.

Shown are the numbers each organization forecast for Named Storms (NS); Hurricanes (H); and Major Hurricanes (MH) of Category Three or stronger.  These numbers are from are their last hurricane predictions before the season began.  The first line shows what actually happened.

The breakdown of the actual 2016 season activity of 15 Named Storms, with 11 becoming hurricanes, and 4 of those reaching major hurricane strength went like this: