Understanding the Consequences of Global Warming

In this article I will attempt to address three statements that are often presented as dire predictions of the consequences of global warming.  First, we are often told sea level will rise significantly.  Second, we are often told storms will be stronger and more frequent.  Finally, I will address the claim wildfires will become more prevalent.  I shall attempt to get basic, not expecting the readers to simply accept statements because someone who claims to be an authority says they are so.

If global warming occurs, we are told sea level will rise as a result.  Where would the extra water come from?  Well, it is right here on Earth. 

The Earth has much water frozen as ice, including glaciers, but much more ice is as the polar caps.  Just as we can rise above sea level gradually as we travel on a highway, so the huge ice caps rise above sea level as we head across them.  If we were to melt all of the ice, it would spread out over the oceans.  This added liquid water would force the sea level to rise.  Simply put, if the oceans had more water, they would spill over.  And the ice on the Earth is significant enough in quantity to over-supply the oceans with water. 

The analogy is to add five-gallon tanks of water to an already full bathtub.  The water would spill out of its present boundaries, the rim of the tub.  So would the oceans spill out of their present boundaries, and the depth of the water would increase.

This statement is more difficult than the concept above, for everyone can comprehend the idea of overfilling a container. 

The atmosphere can hold water, and warmer air holds more water than dry colder air.  As the temperatures of the Earth rise, more water will evaporate into the air.  This is insignificant to abate a sea level rise, but highly significant in other ways.

When water evaporates, it becomes more energetic.  The molecules move faster.  So, we store more energy in the atmosphere.  The warmer the air, the more water it can hold, so the more energy it can have.  The energy comes from the higher temperatures, which do cool slightly with evaporation.  So some of the energy from higher temperature is changed into evaporating more water.

When a storm forms the air condenses the water.  Energy the water vapor held is given back off when the water once again becomes liquid.  This energy heats the air, since it no longer is needed to keep the water molecules moving in the vapor state.  Warmer air rises, and as a result the lower pressure and cooler temperatures aloft cause the air to have a capacity for even less water vapor.  So, more water vapor condenses, causing an even greater release of energy to make the air even lighter, so the process continues.

When liquid water freezes the molecules need even less energy, so the unneeded energy is also released.  This enhances the cloud building process.

Eventually, a storm can result.

So, a warmer Earth holds more water vapor in the atmosphere, which is the fuel for storms.  Instead of burning the fuel, as with an automobile, the heat engine called a storm is supplied with heat directly from the water vapor condensing into liquid water, and eventually from freezing liquid water into ice.

Making the relationship understandable, we simply must realize water vapor holds energy, which is released as heat to drive storms.  The higher the Earth temperatures rise, the more water vapor the atmosphere can hold, which in turn can drive more, and stronger storms.  It is a matter of having more fuel. 

As an analogy, suppose your automobile were to have a larger fuel tank, and the ability to burn fuel faster.  It could go on more trips and at greater speeds.  Well, a warmer Earth has a larger fuel tank, which can drive more storms at greater intensity than we now experience.

Warm air causes water to evaporate at a greater rate than cooler air can, which dries out the ground and things on the ground.  Fire burns more easily with dry fuel, while green wood is harder to ignite.  So, a warmer Earth is a drier Earth, making fires easier to burn. 

Why is this so?  Water does take some of the energy when it evaporates, so spraying most fires with water is a method for extinguishing them.  It also coats the surface with water, denying the fuel for the fire from oxygen.  Fires are actually chemical reactions whereby oxygen is used to produce compounds such a carbon dioxide.  Oxygen must get to the fuel for a fire to burn.

Dry fuel has less water to evaporate, and to shield oxygen from the material that is capable of burning.

As an analogy imagine trying to start a fire in a fireplace.  In one case use old, dry wood.  In the other case toss a bucket of water on the wood before bringing it to the fireplace.  Which will be easier, or even possible, to start burning?  While forests are not soaked, as the wood in the analogy, any water content reduces the efficiency of burning the wood. 

In order to accept what we are being told we must ask the question “why’.  Answering that question gives meaning to what is being said, it is no longer just something we are being told.  And, simple analogies make answering that question easier.

During the holiday season be responsible.  When hosting a gathering a great responsibility falls on you.  So be prepared in advance, and have a festive, safe party.

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